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Biotech / Medical : Vivus: into single digits
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To: MIKE DUBIS who wrote (645)6/30/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) of 1016
 
MIKE,

In the event that Viagra is pulled, I would venture to say that Vivus would move to 20+ the moment the announcement was made. I am not holding my breath as I know that big money and a harder dick have precedent over common sense in this country.

I do not necessarily see the market as shrinking. Let's face it MIKE, every man who cries impotence and is not on nitrates is going to get Viagra first. The real question now is how long it will take for those not succeeding on Viagra to seek further help.

I have some simple math for you to look at. Based on the IMS data there were 867,704 scripts written for Viagra in the last month. Assuming that IMS reports only 60% of actual scripts then we have 1,446,173 men getting Viagra and refilling on a monthly bases.

Now my guess (just my guess) is that about 1/2 of these men are not impotent but are just looking to improve their sexual performance. These men would not have been MUSE candidatews from day 1. This means that about 1/4 million impotent men are currently on Viagra.

Now we have our great Analyst estimates that there are as many as 30 million impotent men in the US. I say this is complete bs and that the number is no more than 10 million. That being the case, Viagra is only being used by less than 10% of the ED population in the USA.

This to me does not appear to be a shrinking market. In fact it appears to me to still be a fairly untapped market.

The original theory was that Viagra would increase ED awareness and eventually help MUSE sales. I feel that this theory is still valid. Problem is that everyone wants to see things materialize in a very short time span. I think that a year from now the script numbers will be higher than they ever were in the past. These things take time and most of us are impatient speculators and not long term investors.
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