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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: mph who wrote (25027)7/1/1998 1:35:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
mph,

I disagree. You are nuts, but you are right about gold! (Just kidding!)

There is only one reason for gold to increase, and that's a perceived devaluation of our own currency through inflation. There simply are no inflationary pressures on the horizon. Also, Greenspan and co. have taken an anticipatory stance with regard to inflation. They obviously believe that it is better to head it off than react after the fact. As for wage pressure, I believe that real wages are about the same today as they were in 1989.

The only economic worry is that the Asian economic problems will slow the US economy to the point that we will stagnate for a bit. But being the optimist that I am, I believe that Asia has received a megadose of reality, and this will set the stage for a more reasonable economic recovery. The Japanese will restructure their banking system in a way reminiscent of our own S&L bail out, and will enact some rules regarding real estate speculation. I believe that we will see an end to much of the protectionsist regulations which will create even more opportunities for world commerce.

I don't expect this to happen overnight. I believe we will see the beginnings of a Japanese recovery in 1999. But I also believe that this will be a slow and painful process because the Japanese will not willingly shed their mantle of protectionism nor break up some of their powerful business combinations nor let some businesses fail altogether.

TTFN,
CTC
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