DJ, am I allowed to answer (re Intel)?
Just a few thoughts.
- We all know that Intel's competition offers faster CPU's for a better price. I think, this was and is a main-argument for all who was selling Intel during the last month.
IMO this is coming out better than we thought:
First the competition is not able to supply the numbers - neither they have enough capacity nor they have a sufficient problem-free production.
Second look at the buyers. Nobody likes to risk malfunctions for a few bucks. It's the "safe" way to bet on "Intel inside" - remember the long time when IBM was bought quite at EVERY price, sometimes without having a product - just for promises.
Third among all investors we have here a lot of calculation, considering, intelligence (even the male humans of us, n'est-ce pas, Lisa?) - but nevertheless, we are not free from "trust" and "feelings", when we buy (or sell) stocks.
What I mean is, the market are DEEP disappointed from Intel, and it needed a long time to come to the recent P/E's. But I'm sure, that's the same as when a longtime "hated" friend comes back saying "forgive me!" - they will RUN and buy Intel again with tears in their eyes.
I think a single strong signal, and we will see not just a moderate buying but a rally like you've never seen before followed by P/E's in the same region we use to see with Microsoft, Lucent, Dell and so on.
OK - so my basic question is: Can we hope for essential good news from Intel? As I mentioned before, this is not a question of Intels (undoubtable constant) market-share. This depends on the PC-market itself.
As we could learn, from Jan-May we had 30% plus followed by a 0-increase in June. By what we hear about Windows 98, I rather would guess that 30% are our reality than 0 percent. High-price-box-assemblers like Dell, IBM and HP are soaring more than ever. These are Intels core-customers. Take your clues yourself.
What I'm thinking? Here my bets:
6 100 APQAD ADAPTEC INC JAN 99 20 C 1
6 50 BA AK BOEING COMPANY JAN 99 55 C 7/8
6 20 BA AL BOEING COMPANY JAN 99 60 C 5/8
6 20 LBOAL BOEING COMPANY JAN 00 60 C 3 1/8
6 20 LBOAN BOEING COMPANY JAN 00 70 C 1 3/4
6 100 LDEAD DELL COMPUTER JAN 00 120 C 18 1/8
6 20 LGRAT GENERAL ELECTR JAN 00 100 C 9 7/8
6 250 LKPAH COMPAQ COMPUTE JAN 00 40 C 4 1/8
6 20 LMFAT MICROSOFT CORP JAN 00 100 C 26
6 25 LMKAH MERCK & COMPAN JAN 00 140 C 17 7/8
6 50 LNLAD INTEL CORP JAN 00 120 C 4
6 25 LPEAF PFIZER INCORPO JAN 00 130 C 14
6 25 LZGAM GILLETTE CO JAN 00 65 C 6 5/8
What market is thinking? Look at Intels contract-price. It's just a few days ago that we needed a nearly 100% growing for a gain...
Am I the only one here betting on INTEL? Every opinion is welcome.
Happy trading!
Jury
PS: Berney, I wish you that this DIS-mess will rebound soon! |
