INDEX UPDATE
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Previously I stated that I had 2 different results from my analysis - one calling for LOWER LOWS and the other calling for HIGHER HIGHS. With my LOWER LOWS analysis I called for the short-term top to occur today or tomorrow, and based on the issue that the market internals did not improve significantly immediately.
With yesterday's performance, the market internals may have improved slightly.
1) MARKET BROADENING - Most of the major indexes were down with the exception of RUT. The NDX and MSH were down but the NAZ was up slightly which indicated that the LOWER TIER/SMALLER ISSUES of the NAZ was up. Money was rotating yesterday and the short-term rally was actually broadening even though the DOW/SPX was down.
2) ADVANCE/DECLINE - The A/D was positive for the NYSE with a 17:13 ratio even though the DOW 30 was down, and the NAZ was slightly up. Such also hints that this short-term upswing is broadening.
3) NEW HIGH/NEW LOW - again this market internal improved slightly even though the DOW was down, hinting of market rotation to smaller issues.
So did the market internals improve significantly enough to negate my analysis of LOWER LOWS. My position is - I DONT KNOW. Need to watch today closely to see if there is further improvement.
Right now the S&P FUTURES are up strong around 7.5, probably due to the big pop in the JAPAN/ASIAN markets and rise in the YEN. If the market internals improve today, and especially if it improves on similiar strong volume like yesterday, then feel that my LOWER LOW analysis could be negated for the short-term.
That would not mean that we will just go to the moon, but that the forthcoming pullback should not be that deep, and the following upswing could produce higher highs, or at least RANGE TRADE at slightly higher range.
Per my earlier notes the resistance for this short-term upswing is at 9070 on the DOW. That should be the top for the short-term.
If we move up strong at the open and continue up but do not exceed 9070, the key then is to watch how much we pull back off the highs by today's close. If we exceed 9070 intraday that would be a very bad sign for existing PUTS.
Seeya |
