<<The asian companies have no cash and no credit. What are they going to buy semi-equip with? >>
Ahh, this was brilliant a year ago and news six months ago, when everyone on these boards was hot on how much new small-line large-wafer technologies (and smaller items like copper, CMP, transport, yield) were going to drive increased equipment sales and how the companies had "no choice" but to buy them. If you tried to talk about co's not being able to pay for them, or even mentioned the overall economic situation in Asia, you'd get flamed remorselessly.
Now all the intellectual momentum has focused on Asian finance, but it is still centered in the present. I have no real idea when the recovery over there will occur, and it might yet get worse, but the tide has at least started to turn. They'll be back soon. Either the Japanese will get their act together, or Western companies will become equity partners, or the Chinese will stride to the plate. (The Japanese actually have lots of money and a huge, if shrinking, economy -- they just aren't willing to trust their money or future to Japanese banks, and Japanese banks can't lend money to other Pacific Rim countries).
But I'll just say, IMHO Asian companies are going to start finding money for equipment purchases in the next year or so, meaning nine months to maybe 18 months. (So we agree, LOL, since 18 months is arguably the "next millenium".)
At some point thereafter, litho is going to shoot off the map. I really think it will outperform the rise of 97. The world is just taking a breather until the next round of siliconization. When the infrastructure is in place -- internet content and shopping sites, reliable OS's, cabling, high speed modems -- a PC is going to be a universal appliance. I cant' really see the PC TV idea for a while (who wants to see "Fatal Page Error" pop up on their TV in the middle of "ER"?), but for shopping, news, banking, and communication, I really think we'll see it actually working in the next few years.
Sorry, enough ranting. I see a recovery starting with Asian equipment orders in the next year or two and another huge boom in these stocks thereafter. |
