Richard, re:TAVA. Timing is always a difficult issue, especially for a short position.
I have been following TAVA and posting occasionally for several months. IMO now is the time to short, but I could easily be wrong! If the stock moves against me, I'll short more ... unless the fundamentals improve significantly.
Here is my "short" process:
1) Find an overvalued stock.
2) Understand WHY it is overvalued. This is pretty easy for TAVA. No doubt Y2K is scary and embedded systems are mysterious to non-technical people. (These are important to fix ... don't take this wrong!) But PlantY2KOne is a methodology, not really a product. So TAVA is just a consulting Company with a nice niche that ends in a couple of years.
3) Try to determine when people will realize it is overvalued. Last quarter was too soon ... expectations for TAVA were very low. This quarter and next quarter should start to tell the story, so IMO now is the time to short the stock.
There are plenty of problems with TAVA; horrible balance sheet, negative cash flow, low margin core business, shrinking core business, IMO weak management, dismal sales of PlantY2kOne, highly dilutive financing, etc.
Final thought: one of the keys was understanding PlantY2KOne. I have researched this pretty well ... talked with users, distributors, etc. This "product" is nothing special. BTW, I think I am the only person on the thread to talk with Wonderware!
Hope this helps! Sorry for rambling on ...
Best Regards, Bill |
