Michelle,
What exactly does Microsoft have to sell against Oracle on the NT platform? I think it is clear within the industry that SQL Server 7 (which will go production eventually...) is still no match TECHNICALLY for Oracle8 on NT. Recent stories in the trade press also show Oracle selling quite well for NT servers. Microsoft will end up pretty much giving away the database software to gain market share (why bother selling your enterprise products when you can give them away and live off the consumer OS upgrade revenue until your competition goes broke). Still, I find most corporate IS types very, very suspicious of actually putting a mission critical system on SQL Server/NT.
I agree that Oracle had better get their act together in the Apps business. The most significant growth potential that they have is in applications. They also need to continue to grow their services revenue. The "Oracle Certified Professional" farce, I mean program, should bring in revenue to Oracle Education. After all, Novell's CNE and Microsoft's MCSE programs have created self-perpetuating multi-million dollar (or is it billion) industries (although the results of the training, books, test-cram courses, etc. and their "certified" graduates are dubious, at best, in the real world). Oracle is getting set to offer outsourced database administration services. This should make the prospect of going with Oracle more palatable to smaller businesses as well as help larger outfits that can't find enough Oracle DBAs to hire even though they are waving 100K+ salaries around.
There are two wild-cards that could also prove significant: NCA and Linux. When (not if) Oracle releases a supported Linux version, assuming they are rational and don't price it like it was on Solaris, there could be a significant bump in the unix platform. If (even I won't say "when"...) NCA takes off, the potential for Oracle to provide server software supporting the new paradigm is tremendous.
When his ego and arrogance don't get in the way (or is it because of his ego and arrogance), Larry has a proven track record. I don't think he has simply run out of good, visionary ideas. I've seen him be right on target most of the time over the past dozen years. I'm not quite ready to jump ship (then again, my current Oracle holdings still show that paper profit).
-Michael |
