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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Raj who wrote (18804)7/2/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Raj -- If you ever have time go back on our discussions on this TB thing-- I always felt strongly that Japanese are in for preservation of capital if they would sell TB's they would kill any chance of their own recovery as they would need to put the money back to work by selling $'s buying yen and where to invest yen in zero yielding deposits, they always threatened to withdraw from US but had no where else to park the kind of funds they had. Any rich nation has to find a right place for its reserves- since Japanese are export oriented and sensitive to trade surplus they stiffled domestic expansion and became source of cheap capital to US. US by employing it better was able to make great inroads as they improved on productivity and efficiency-- now with the help of Japanese hard work US has become a formidable giant in its own rights. The defecits are all but evaporated and yields are coming down as real interest rates look too high. Now if Japan comes back on domestic demand track, we will have best of two world a economy which is slowing or a soft landing which all the economists never even thought possible in their wildest of dreams they all anticipated a fall. If the new paradigm is established then may be we are loking right now at the possible building blocks for a period of next three years a new age of global growth.

However, things do not move in straight line and as such we will need to read these meandering markets and try to see if we can by any outside chance able to define the course. We just try.
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