OK...my Connect-Stark Theory.
Stark has been selling since 13 April (total original shares issued, his sales, and reported remainder confirm this to w/in 5%). His pace varies, probably depending on the daily volume sitting on the bid, from 2% to almost 100% of the daily volume. Monthly average works out to about 10% of the daily volume.
.............Stark....April.....~490K
Market Total.....April.....~5,000K
.............Stark....May.....~340K
Market Total.....May.....~3,400K
Reported remaining shares on 28 May is 880K
Market total for June was ~ 2,000K.
So assuming his pace holds, he dropped another 200K to bring his total to 680K.
I did not include 29 May which has 2.6M traded. Show no reported sales for him on that day, yet. This could brings his total down to 420K.
So figuring maybe one more PR in July coupled w/a typical volume month, we see a July total of maybe 4M shares. If Stark continues his exit, He should be done by near the end of July.
Why am I doing this? Because I feel he is capping the price an crushing any runs. 10% may not seem much, but consider that he made up 20% of the volume each of the two days after the run on 15 April, and 25% & 20% on the two days following the run on 4 May. All sales.
No comment as to his foresight. Also, previous estimates of the float being around 2M shares should be doubled by August.
I spoke to David Greehouse @ Special Situations (Mutual Fund?). "I spoke" is the correct phrase too, since he wouldn't give up anything. Their position, what it's doing, and their reason for owning approximately 1.25M shares will remain information privy only to those controlling the shares. Not even the hint of an opinion. |
