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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 168.81

-3.0%

1:21 PM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11969)	7/2/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Ramsey: The big problem with the punditry to date is that everyone seems to be looking for a point solution to a multifaceted problem. Japan has significant internal challenges that are structural in nature. At the same time, neighboring economies have self-immolated and this is severely depressing Japanese exports. Even if internal consumer demand perks up, Japan is still going to face a difficult macroeconomic environment. While the U.S. economy is in good shape, our stock market scares the daylights out of me. On one hand we have a very tight labor market, and a Federal Reserve itching to raise rates. On the other hand, we are facing the non-zero probability that the Asian currency crisis (now an Asian economic crisis) creates a deflationary spiral that plunges the entire globe into a world-wide recession. So, if Asia recovers, the Fed tightens and our market goes boom. If Asia continues to collapse, ultimately our economy falters and our market goes boom. Meanwhile, the silly season continues. In August of 1995, Westinghouse paid roughly $10bb (including assumed debt) for CBS. This acquisition included one of the three major television networks plus a bevy of owned-and-operated TV stations, successful record company and a film library. Today the market is placing a similar valuation on a three year old internet start-up with under $100mm in trailing revenue. All I can say is "yahoo"! Have a nice weekend everybody! Gregg

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