Listed below is an update of ED specification based on unconfirmed Internet posts.
Highlights are are follows:
-Total ED specification is currently 14.6 times higher than prior to Viagra's launch.
-Total Viagra prescriptions have surpassed 2.46 million since launch (12 weeks).This is probably the highest specification ever acheived for a new product in the history of Big Pharma.
-Viagra new Rxs and refill Rxs for the week ending June 19,1998 declined 5.5% over the prior week....the second consecutive weekly decline. This decline reflects the strong initial specification in early May and concerns about Viagra adverse reactions as reported in the media since 5/21/98.
-Indicative of its therapeutic success and future repeat business, Viagra refill Rxs continued to grow (+6.0%) and achieved its highest level ever. The important Viagra Refill/New Rx ratio moved up to 45.3%.
- Approximately 98 out of 100 Rxs for ED are being written for Viagra.
-MUSE Rxs have declined for each of the 12 weeks following the Viagra launch. Total MUSE Rxs of 4,694 were the lowest since the first week of MUSE's approval and 70.4% below the average MUSE weekly level of 15,872 achieved during 1997. To date, MUSE's significant loss of specification to Viagra has not been been countered by a "coattail effect" from increased MUSE specification resulting from Viagra failures.
Note: The Memorial Day holiday had a negative impact on the 5/29/98 data.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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ED New RXs
Correlation: -0.903
.....................................................% Share.......% Share
......Week....Viagra........MUSE........ Viagra.........MUSE
..... Ending...New Rxs....New Rxs.....New Rxs.....New Rxs
12..6/19/98....151,579.....2,210...........98.6%...........1.4%
11..6/12/98....168,610.....2,154...........98.7%...........1.3%
10..6/05/98....192,585.....2,035...........99.0%...........1.0%
9....5/29/98....161,405.....2,097............98.7%.........1.3%
8....5/22/98.....236,525.....2,344............99.0%.........1.0%
7....5/15/98.....262,566....2,373............99.1%........ 0.9%
6....5/8/98.......278,715....2,588.............99.1%.........0.9%
5.....5/1/98......269,842....2,945........ 98.9%.........1.1%
4.....4/24/98.....207,868 ..3,524........ 98.3%.........1.7%
3.....4/17/98.....113,134....4,609....... 96.1%..........3.9%
2....4/10/98 ......36,263... 6,716..........84.4%.........15.6%
1....4/3/98............ 546... 7,998..............6.4%........93.6%
0....3/27/98...... ...... 0... 9,593 .............0.0%.......100.0%
Total .............2,079,828...51,186
Avg Post Viagra.173,319....3,466.........98.0%........2.0%
Avg. 1997........................12,594
...% Chg Post/1997.............-72.5%
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ED Refill RXs
Correlation: -0.920
............................................................% Share......% Share
......Week...Viagra.............MUSE...........Viagra..........MUSE
......Ending..Refill Rxs.........Refill Rxs......Refill Rxs....Refill Rxs
12..6/19/98...68,689.............2,484...........96.5%..........3.5%
11..6/12/98...64,781.............2,630...........96.1%..........3.9%
10..6/05/98....63,323.............2,755..........95.8%..........4.2%
9....5/29/98....49,452.............2,737..........94.8%........ 5.2%
8....5/22/98....45,972..............3,026.........93.8%........ 6.2%
7....5/15/98....35,100..............3,078.........91.9%.........8.1%
6....5/8/98......24,700...............3,277........88.3%......... 11.7%
5....5/1/98.......16,429............. 3,659.......81.8%......... 18.2%
4....4/24/98.......7,508..............3,824.......66.3%......... 33.7%
3....4/17/98.......2,109..............4,290.......33.0%......... 67.0%
2....4/10/98 .........429..............4,677..... 8.4%........... 91.6%
1....4/3/98...............0...............5,031.......0.0%...........100.0%
0....3/27/98.............0...............4,873..... 0.0%...........100.0%
Total.................378,492. ...........41,468
Avg Post Viagra..34,408..............3,456.....90.9%......... 9.1%
Avg. 1997...................................3,278
% Chg Post/1997...........................5.4%
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ED Total Rxs
Correlation: -0.938
....................................................................% Share....% Share
......Week................Viagra.........MUSE.........Viagra.........MUSE
..... Ending...............Total Rxs....Total Rxs....Total Rxs....Total Rxs
12..6/19/98..............220,458......4,694..............97.9%.....2.1%
11..6/12/98..............233,391......4,784..............98.0%.....2.0%
10..6/05/98..............255,908......4,799..............98.2%.....1.8%
9....5/29/98..............210,857......4,834............. 97.8%.....2.2%
8....5/22/98 ............ 282,497......5,370............ 98.1%.....1.9%
7....5/15/98............. 297,666......5,451............. 98.2%.....1.8%
6....5/8/98............... 303,415......5,865............. 98.1%.....1.9%
5....5/1/98............... 286,271......6,604............. 97.7%......2.3%
4....4/24/98............. 215,376......7,348............. 96.7%......3.3%
3....4/17/98............. 115,243......8,899..............92.8%.......7.2%
2....4/10/98 ..............36,692.....11,393.............76.3%.....23.7%
1....4/3/98.......................546.....13,029..............4.0%......96.0%
0....3/27/98 .............. .........0.....14,466............ 0.0%.....100.0%
Total......................2,458,320.....97,536
.....Avg Post Viagra....204,860.....6,923..............96.7%.......3.3%
......Avg. 1997..............................15,872
......% Chg Post/1997....................-56.4%
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ED Ratio: Refill Rxs/New Rxs
........................Viagra.........MUSE
..... Week.........% refills/......% refills/
.... Ending........New Rxs.....New Rxs
11..6/19/98...........45.3%.....112.4%
11..6/12/98...........38.4%.....122.1%
10..6/05/98...........32.9%.....135.4%
9....5/29/98............30.6%....130.5%
8....5/22/98............19.4%....129.1%
7....5/15/98 ...........13.1%....129.7%
6....5/8/98................8.9%....126.6%
5....5/1/98................6.1%....124.2%
4....4/24/98..............3.6%....108.5%
3....4/17/98 .............1.9%.....93.1%
2....4/10/98 .............1.2%.....69.6%
1....4/3/98 ............. 0.0%....62.9%
0....3/27/98............ ......... 50.8%
.....Avg Post Viagra......19.9%...99.7%
......... Avg. 1997.......................26.0%
Notes
-New Rxs: The key to the health of a new product. Look for volume, market share and growth trends. Viagra new Rxs are expected to plateau and decline due to heavy initial trial usage. Holidays will effect weekly totals.
-Refill Rxs: An important indicator of the efficacy and toleration of a new product particularly one for prn therapy such as ED. These patients will not refill a product that is not working or is causing adverse reactions.
-Refill/New Rx Ratio: Another indicator of a product's success. After an initial launch period of 4-6 months, a successful new product should have a refill ratio of at least 50%. Conversely, a product with a refill ratio of less than 50% after 4-6 months may not have been viewed as effective, well-tolerated, or available.
In addition, a ratio of greater than 110% may result from a sharp decline in new specification due to alternative new therapies ....while the remaining satisfied patients continue to refill their Rxs. If this ratio is significantly higher than historical norms, the product may be in trouble.
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