Incomep: <<BigKNY: Now you become a frequent visitor of VVUS thread. Should I say that you feel VVUS has momentum again around the quartly earning announcement. >>
Incomep, it depends on which momentum you mean..VVUS hit its all-time low today and closed at 5 25/32.
The VVUS Board is fascinating to watch and lurk for three reasons; the impact that Viagra has had on VVUS, the strong loyalty of VVUSers in the face of major losses, and the even stronger hatred of PFE and Viagra by many VVUSers (not all).
As for purchasing VVUS, I refer you to my two favorite VVUS posts made on March 15, 1998 (VVUS@ 11 1/4) and on October 19,1997 (VVUS@ 29 7/8). My only update is that early data indicates that MUSE may not benefit from the expansion of the ED market.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
Full disclosure: I have long positions in PFE, WLA, BMY, LLY, AMGN, MRK and ICOS. I do not utilize shorting as an investment strategy.
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Date: Sun, Oct 19, 1997 10:50 EDT
VVUS @ 29 7/8
sharikwa <<what you think of Vivus?>>
I do not have have a long position in VVUS or expect to have a position in the future. It does not fit the profile of companies that I like to own (too risky and volatile). I have also never shorted a stock or plan to!
Although I do not have extensive knowledge about VVUS, here are some general observations:
1. VVUS is currently a one-product company in a significant active therapeutic area. The ED market will dramatically change and grow during the next two years.
2. As a relatively brand new company, VVUS management is bound to make some big mistakes concerning forecasting, production, marketing and dealing with the FDA. These mistakes could have a significant adverse impact on VVUS.
3. Major VVUS posters have absolutely no knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry or pharmaceutical marketing and are relying on their price trend charts to determine the future of MUSE and VVUS. A big mistake!! Even worse, some posters spread misinformation about competition to suit their current positions. In the end, facts, experience, and patient preference (not misinformation) will win out in the marketplace.
4. VVUS seems to be a magnet for momentum investors. Just check out the Silicon Investor VIVUS Board for further evidence. As a result, short-term 20%-50% swings (up and down) can be expected. If you hit the timing right, there is an opportunity to make money. But, you also need to know when to get out. This is not a buy and hold stock!
5. Oral medications should be introduced in the ED market in 1998. Their impact on MUSE is unknown. Moreover, news about the oral drugs will probably have an adverse effect on VVUS. VVUS is down 15% since the announcement of Viagra's NDA submission on September 29th even with a one day spurt on 9/30/97..
VVUS management is putting on a happy face about an expanding market. But, in reality, nobody knows what will happen until the oral products are available. Regardless, this is a major factor for VVUS that brings significant additional risk ...and possible opportunity.
Best of luck to all VVUS investors,
BigKNY3
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Sunday, Mar 15 1998 10:59AM ET
Reply # of 10407
VVUS@ 11 1/4
Where have all the VVUSers gone? To help stimulate conversation, I am raising the following hypothetical question:
Assume that the Viagra NDA is approved by the FDA on March 30, 1998. What will be the short-term (3 months) and longer-term impact (>3 months) on the price of VVUS?
Here's my best guess:
I would expect VVUS to trade within a range of 8-13 during the short-term as traders debate the fate of MUSE in an oral ED environment.
Once Viagra is actually available in the market, new Rx data for Viagra and MUSE will be closely monitored. The price of VVUS will be directly related to MUSE RX trends during this period. If Rx losses are offset by the expanded ED market, VVUS will rise again...in proportion to the RX growth. However, the opposite effect could also occur.
I believe in the longer-term the expanded ED market will result in increased MUSE specification. But, at this point no one knows for sure...This unknown has contributed to the current downside pressure on VVUS.
Any other comments or guesses?
Good investing!
BigKNY3
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