Aloha,
(comment on Japan, bonds, and dollar/yen)... but first...
ADVH is not done... they couldnt drive it down much today... was that three legs down? ... next comes the reflex up... you must not margin much with <10 stocks... in all sincerity I am impressed with 4 for 4... ADVH aint over... I find hardest part not in picking but getting out... ADVH could jump to 6+ in two days while THQ farts around back to 30+, opening the door to you
I used to trade currencies two years ago and still follow it for thrills... JYen was my favorite... did well with it only to give it back on grains... it stair stepped each quarter in technical triangles.
back in early 1995 when dollar hit low of 80 Y/$, Japan was hands down the largest TBond holder among foreigners (private plus central banks)... at their peak they owned at least $800 billion (best recollection -- 20% of US debt!)... yen carry trade became huge at that turning point, continuing to be huge for well over a year as the dollar began to appreciate... what kicked the Japanese out of first was the gradual onset of their recession... recall reading that Japan cut their TBond holdings in half by end of 1996 or so... articles all over Barrons in foreign market columns... as Japan's economy weakened, prime rib holdings were liquidated... Nikkei dropped from 22,000 to 16,000 and mega margin calls forced them out of TBonds... you know, raise cash on best, hold worst assets
from 1997 on, pundits have been fearing the Japanese fullscale TB liquidation, except largely over with... straw dog argument... interesting how yen carry trade (buy US TB with borrowed cheap JYen) has been staggeringly profitable during the dollar's rise from 80 to 140, all the while J's TB holdings have been reduced... shows the enormity of their weakened economy, which needs food (money)
surprised to see UK leading the pack... didnt figure China, since they are new kids on "trade surplus" block.. but China is racking up impressive surpluses, and has growing war chest... China will need war chest to fend off their own recession
my guess is UK has seen large scale capital flight out of uncertain HongKong, back home, putting it in safe haven US TB... UK Gilts pay bigger yield, but principal appreciation on USTB makes for greater total return
Aloha, currencies are the Bonneville Salt Flats... what are you pissing around with murky stocks for, when you get serious JUICE with bond and currency futures?... you would have to know what you are talking about... CBOE is opening futures contracts on chicken soon
I like THQ because up to earnings announcmts, it is like taking candy from a baby
hope this helps on TBonds background... God, that was a fun couple years
dont make me use that bottle again / JW |
