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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4714)7/2/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton  Read Replies (4) of 6136
 
Folks, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but here's a post from the Motley Fool AGPH thread. Testact is a frequent poster, and seems knowledgeable. I'm passing this on without judgment either way in the interests of full discussion on the company. Btw, I don't think he liked Peter Johnson's tie, either ... : )

Peter

Subject: Re: Relative importance of NRTIs
Date: Thu, Jul 2, 1998 10:04 PM
From: Testact
Message-id: <1998070222041700.SAA11819@ladder03.news.aol.com>

I am back from Geneva and have the following response to your post and highlights from the meeting:

NRTIs will remain the cornerstone of ARV in the future!!! I have no idea where your comment that their importance was diminished comes from. All patients on HAART receive two nucleoside analogs and the standar of care is 2 nukes and a PI....for now....sustiva will change that

NNRTIs (actually let's just say Sustiva) will gain rapid acceptance in the treatment naive setting until the toxicities (lipodystrophy, diabetes, etc) are better understood. This was based on my conversations with at least 10 docs (many opinion leaders)! PIs will still play a major role in salvage (which is where most of the treated patients are) but Sustiva will have an impact on Viracept sales.

I spoke with Peter Johnson at the meeting regarding the Shinogi compound; he obviously is excited about the prospect of it being active in Sustiva resistant strains. However this in in-vitro data and I am aware of better pre-clinical compounds than this one. The pharmakokinetics of this compound and dosing uncertianty (probably BID) make this a real question mark.

Remune: spoke with A. Fauci and others....this compound is a dog and will see minimal uptake in the marketplace.

Japan Energy PIs - to early to tell.....I was told by a few people at the meeting that these did not look as good as the Parke-Davis, PNU and BMS PIs in development.

I have to say I am puzzled on some of the deals Agouron is doing and I think the analysts are as well......this is obviously reflected in their stock price. Keep in mind all of these product acquisistions mean more R&D......and less bottom line for a number of years. Don't count on Remune to add much in the short-term. My prediction is that if Agouron's stock falls another 10% someone will snatch them up for their salesforce, Viracept and
somewhat questionable pipeline, but at $750MM versus $1.2Bn they become a better target.

Testact



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