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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4715)7/3/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy  Read Replies (2) of 6136
 
Peter thanks. The non-technical pessimism somewhat summarizes the sinking feeling I've been having. From my extremely limited viewpoint, AGPH's actions have provoked renewed concerns since the hush hush approach on the AG3340 trials. The Remune situation sounded like it may be exciting, but does not appear that it was well received by folks in the know...the two other deals struck me as placing a big bet that HIV treatment would not advance significantly beyond current technology in the next few years, in that from everything I understand these drugs would be three years from market at best. I suspect the folks on the selling end knew this and may be the big winners on those deals.

I'm hoping it was just initial confusion, and the AGPH super analyst Doug Lind will tell us Monday why AGPH is making the right moves, and why the stock is a buy. I expect to hear something from him. I suppose no word would be just as telltale. My confidence in this company has been deteriorating along with my trust in Mr Johnson and the BOD since the scam last October, the unrelenting insider selling since last year, and since it started appearing that their latest attempt at a cancer drug may be as much a bomb as the first. I don't know that the philosphy "Under promise and Over Deliver" is as fitting a description as "refuse to play the game" and/or "in trouble beyond Viracept and without a clue". Hope I'm wrong, but now at least someone has planted the seed that this company just may not be a winner in the big picture. The short interest situation further suggests to me that maybe we've all been missing something with this investment.

I'm prepared to start bailing from my positions and heavily hedging anything remaining if 1) the stock closes below 28, 2) the insider selling by officers or directors appears to resume after a one month breather, or 3) if Doug Lind's opinion is neutral to down.

I suppose it may be a good time to ask what the company is worth and who might be interested in buying.

Thanks for the information.

sf
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