Jane,
When evaluating a company and its stock, you need to know two things:
1) The company fundamentals including: market sector, products, partners, potential...etc...
2) at what value the market is pricing the company, in other words, the stock's market capitalization.
Many new BB:OTC offering starts with market caps of a few millions and can balloon to market caps of $50M or more on promotion alone. With a good concept and strong promotion (if not hype), you can have a stock with a market cap as high as $100M even if you have no sales and few assets. That is why most of them come back down to the $5M-$20M market cap range after the initial frenzy.
ALya fundamentals are well know. They have been explained on this thread. World class partners. Solid and experienced management. A sexy and promising high teck product. A few sales that confirm the validity of the products..and a growing organization including its worldwide distributor network. (keep in mind here that the capacity to attract worldwide distributors of the quality Alya has assembled and to regularly add to this list, is a sign that their products are wanted).
The market value of Alya is now $12M and even at its peak in April never exceeded $20M. IMO, we have yet to see any kind of frenzy in this stock.
I don't think that the stock can go to .25. This would mean a market cap of less than $3M and would not be in synch with the fundamentals. Can it go to $0.50 or $.75..well possibly...but everybody doubts it. Those who understand the fundamentals are buying at the current levels. Of course if we get no news in the next 2-3 months and there is no announcement confirming the forecasted sales for the current year or other big news, some investor might start asking questions and may sell their stock...but for now, everything seems on track.
I suggest you take a long term approach and follow the progress of the company. Evaluate periodically what has been achieved.. This is a real company with a strategic plan, good products and large potential.
Will they succeed ? Well that is another question. That is why investing in small company in the development stage is always a high risk/high reward proposition.
On a technical basis, I think the stock is forming a base in the $0.93-$1.30 range. This trading range is in place since the peak in April. If the company is successful and achieved its plan over the balance of the year, I feel strongly we will have $2-$3 before year end. And assuming the plan is on target as well in 1999...well $5-$10 before Y2K is my bet. On the other hand, if their progress is slow and they fell behind their goal.(e.g. they do not announced anything significant in the next 2-3 months)..then a set back to the pre-April level of $0.50-$0.60 is likely.
I bought yesterday at $1.01...so you now where my heart is.
CC |
