Theragenics (TGX) on the up and up Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Theragenics (TGX) on the up and up

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To: ZombieMike who wrote (929)	7/3/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: Markkov	Read Replies (1) of 1055

I am reluctant to blame manipulation for the recent drop. The stock price simply fell out of control. Who wins in this scenario unless insiders were short. This does not appear to be a manipulative pump-n-dump situation (see LEAP) where there was an artificial demand created to quickly capitalize on rapid market swings. Rather this appears to be the end of the proverbial honeymoon. A gut busting reality check. THRX was trading at lofty multiples - a darling. Now enter a few less than positive opinions about earnings (down a dime), the market (cancer occurrence down), the competition (up and growing), and for good measure throw in hefty insider selling and the results were somewhat predictable. Just ask all those insiders at THRX that sold. We can discuss the merits of the procedure or the company or the color of the lobby carpeting. It doesn't matter. The fact is that THRX is not a 'new bride' any longer. She has been discovered and the potential flaws are showing. The market is going to price it basically on performance rather than potential or uniqueness. The question, as I see it, is where does the stock go from here. We see Wilmot talk about 35x multiples of year 2000 projected earnings. I hope she is right, but don't bet on it. All we have today is .10 projected for Q2 (7/21) and .67-.85 for next year. Taking the low road of about .70 times 20, you come up with $14.00. Sound familiar? This is a logical bottom unless you get a day or two of delayed panic. I also concur that there was an overreaction. Now if it recaptures the rapture and get a bounce to 30x '99, short term you are looking at $20-$21. A positive earnings surprise in 2 1/2 weeks would help to no end. A negative surprise ...... don't even think what would happen.

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