Gregg, hoping to cheer you up, you must accept being only a second-rate Portfolio Manager. But you are going to do a lot better than those you complained of in your post because at least half of them are going to lose their shirts whereas you will not.
I wrote recently that speculators should be treated as heroes, not with the denigration they usually get as though they are some sort of leeches. Mahathir being one of the haters of Soros and co. That is because their business is about the most dangerous - reducing volatility and profiting from it.
To understand where the herd is going and when is the name of the game in humanity. Standing in front of the herd is dangerous. But the herd is mindless. Understanding them is the way to profit.
Because you invest on analysis and principles of long-established business practise, you won't do as well as those who successfully [by good judgement or good luck] speculate on what the herd will do. Unless you join that game, you shouldn't feel unhappy with simply doing very well, which you cannot avoid if you've properly understood the fundamentals of Qualcomm.
A couple of years ago in puzzling over Qualcomm, I decided that because of volatility and volume with a rising profitability, Qualcomm has been targetted by skilled, computer, cash flow and algorithm wielding PhDs in mathematics who make money on the rises and falls. I believe they are so skilled they can predict and precipitate the momentum moves. Not just in Qualcomm of course, but hundreds of similar companies and whole markets. D E Shaw and company of New York is a name that I'm aware of.
I'm like you. A basic joker and prefer the real to guessing the herd's wild moves. But I've developed a keen enough sense of Qualcomm's moves to have bought at each all time low, though the last one wasn't quite right but fairly close. But I'm aware that the real value in the modern video world of Web investing is to act as speculator.
I've dabbled with the idea of algorithm wars, but have been too chicken so far. I've registered a company to do it, but have to open an account with a low cost trading broker in the USA. It would be a new idea for me.
New Zealand went through a market crash that few are aware of in 1987. It was the same if not worse than Korea, Japan etc. The index is still way below the high of 1987. There was years of recession and psychological damage and fear stains New Zealand still. NZ thought it was King Kong in 1986! Same as Korea, Japan etc did before their comeuppance.
The USA might be repeating the situation but it seems to me there are differences which make more than a major mincing of investment novices unlikely in the USA situation. There has been the S&L bust. Credit limits and loans are not maniacal. Many people are holding cash waiting for the suckers to crash.
I don't think there is a need for an endlessly growing population and believe on the contrary that the world is going to see a population implosion over the next 50 years as women choose not to have babies in droves = same as in Japan. But there is a hugely growing economically functioning population - China, India, Indonesia [despite it's current woes] which will provide enormous human energy, creativity and opportunity.
Qualcomm will be at the focal point of this spectacular human development because communication is a defining human characteristic. cdmaOne and cdma2000 will enable that communication at low, low, low cost.
Why is this thread as it is? Because of the denizens. The unique combination of individuals who in a co-operative enterprise are building the world. Where individuals do that, success follows. Or something like that.
Mqurice
Second-rate investor
Dow 16,000 Feb 2002
PS: Looking at the technical analysis, Q due to jump to $80 any day now! Look at the cycles - it's obvious. |
