Jon,
Thanks for that response on futures.I haven't studied the futures mkts at all but I have always felt that so few contracts, everybody focused on the same contracts, has to make things very difficult. It's as if the DOW stocks were all that existed.How does one get an advantage?
I lived in Switzerland as a kid. We used to get 4.25 Swiss Francs to the dollar. I remember very well 1985 when the DMark was at 3/1. Clearly what you're saying makes some sense, the dollar has been much higher in the past.I suppose what's going on inside the index is what's really important. The fact is we've had approx 30-40% appreciation against the DMark and Yen in the past couple of years. This is a large rapid move which has to has to have real world consequences.The mkt's been grappling with these consequences, in conjunction with ASIA.In adition there's the upcomming EURO, which if it succeeds will certainly compete with the dollar. To some extent I'm with Gregg in that I think think we might be approaching a no win situation where our stock mkt as judged by the indexes is in trouble either way. If ASIA/Jap get's its' act together and there's no Chinese devaluation, then cap will flow away from US. If ASIA falls descends into futher chaos, then how long can we keep up this levitaion act? Perhaps it doesn't matter if one's currency goes to the moon as long as one is making products others have to have, although at some point others will figure out how to make these things as well, or as long as one keeps consuming everything oneself. The best scenario I can imagine is one where ASIA stabilizes, the EURO is successful, our stock mkt tops out but within the averages many companies do just fine. SEMIS rebound, some of the overvalued safeplays sell off.CDMA and Q RULE...
Got to go. I'm sure by the time I check back tomorrow there will 57 new posts(ggg)...Happy 4th to All..
dave |
