"9"....sure.
The silliness about a $7 eps year needs to stop before anyone gets sucked in.
The greater the downturn, the higher the next peak will probably be. So in the "freddie" friday the 13th nightmare scenario, the dram and logic chip capacity problems drag out to late next year, just prior to a world wide recession caused by the y2k disaster. So the orders, which would start pouring in late next year, get delayed an additional year, to late 2000, as companies deal with recession and budgets which allow software spending in order to fix the bug. The "nets" bandwidth explodes, and nothing really comes along to cause a demand for more powerful processors, just a demand for more processors. the boom finally hits in the middle of 2001..3 years from now.
A made rush for new equipment occurs for 3 solid years, to the point of overcapacity again. By 1/04, amat is poised for a 10 billion sale year, and earnings will be $5 per share. The stock hits 158.875 on September 22nd, 2004,up from 17.12 on Dec 12th, 2000, but begins a slow slide the next day, which picks up speed on October 13, when the stock market gets wacked 7%, dropping to 18,837. Amat ends 2004 at 56, after the 2-1 split that occured on October 24th.
gene
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