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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (21085)	7/4/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 70976

GM, You bring up a good point- nobody has a crystal ball so invest when things look bad. IMO, that is right now. Of course there are those holding out waiting to get their prices, but Greed works on the downside as well as the up. These people may miss the upturn. In Nov '96, when things were still shi**y in the group, AMAT announced that visibility was clearing up and the stock gapped up 8+ points the next day. Buy when RS is the weakest and sell when it is the strongest. BTW, I believe that DW %'s were in the 15% range a couple of weeks ago and have since moved up. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Brian Re: Lehman's "optimistic" outlook I think it is now time to begin discussing how long the next upturn can last. The longer the downturn the more prolonged the upturn. Can AMAT really earn $7 in the next 4-5-6 years? I recently visited the SFAM site and saw this post: exchange2000.com Notice the 75-80 for AMAT and the 7.4 for SFAM. If AMAT can continue its dominance in new markets, I don't think anyone should laugh at the prospect of the #'s in the Lehman report at least before doing some addl DD. AMAT is not the 800 lb gorilla, they're the 1000 lb gorilla. Forgetting this fact can lose you $$(I own LRCX and SFAM)

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