Folks,
This week's issue of Far East Economic Review is a must read for Asia watchers. (In fact, it is a must read almost any issue IMHO.)
Read "Where To Put Your Money" and "Outlook".
feer.com
Some highlights:
" Fund managers say a rebound is unlikely any time soon for Asian markets."
"most fund managers in Asia have lost their faith in all emerging markets in the world, which they now see as the worst combination of high risk and low return. Better by far, they believe, to be in the developed markets that for the past several years have offered a more attractive combination of high return and low risk. "
What has to happen for Asia to look attractive again?:
Keith Ferguson, regional investment director at Fidelity Investments, says Asia will be a buy when half the listed companies in the region delist. James Rooney, president and chief executive of Ssangyong Templeton Investment Trust Management, advises investors to await a change in management attitudes--most importantly, a new focus on the bottom line, not on being Big.
The gloom is exacerbated by the growing realization that Asia isn't facing simply a cyclical downturn, but a severe contraction which requires structural transformation. "Asia is all about good assets, but lousy balance sheets and poor management"
U.S.-based investors can thank Asia for at least this much--because of Asia, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and put Wall Street under a cloud. Fund managers aren't looking for the stellar performance in the U.S. of the last two years, but they aren't detecting signs of a bear market either. "The underpinnings are firm," says Salem of Citibank. "Maybe the growth will be at a decelerated rate; maybe there won't be a dramatic expansion in price-earnings ratios. But the market is expensive precisely because it is okay." The number of fund managers who expect to see a correction in the U.S. is steadily dwindling.
EOM |
