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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Mkilloran who wrote (10477)7/5/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: DaiS  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
Mkilloran,

With 32M pa units for the new plant it makes much more sense.

Population of world (6Billion) is 21 USA (280Million) equivalents.

USA muse units/month post viagra is 5000 x 2 (IMS corrrection) 6 = 240,000 approx

Output new plant is 32M / 8 (lines) / 12 (months) is 333,000 units per line.

Therefore lines to meet post viagra USA demand is 240,000/333,000 = 0.72 lines.

To meet population extrapolated world demand need 0.72 x 21 = 15 lines ie roughly 2 factories with 8 lines each.

But this 15 lines has to be multiplied by two factors:

1. Factor adjusting for per capita gdp
Can't see how this can be > 0.2 - can the muse buying power of the world be greater than 21 x 0.2 =4 USA equivalents. So,

15 x 0.2 = 3 lines

2. Factor adjusting for increased demand through improved marketing.
If this were 5 we would get back to 15 lines again.

Anyway on these bases I was wrong, there is need for a new plant as you say.

If the units sold in UK and other developed countries is much greater than pre-viagra USA level, after adusting for population size, then we might get some indication just how woeful Vivus' attempts have been in the USA.

Furthermore if Leland wants to have 4 new lines going by end July, they will pump out 4/0.72 = 5.55 the current USA consumption. And of world consumption only 0.72/4 x 100 = 18% would be in USA in near future. And this is overestimate because it disregards Paco production.

DaiS
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