Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.55

+0.2%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Max Mach who wrote (8923)	7/5/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Sean T. Kim	Read Replies (2) of 164684

It will take 2 straight days of double digit declines before the great AMZN flameout begins. When that happens, and I think it will be soon, then jump in with both feet. The longs who have been riding this thing will turn tail since they know they are way ahead of themselves. Management has been downplaying expectations for weeks and analysts have continued to lower their forecasts. They went to the junk market a few weeks ago instead of doing a secondary offering because they knew institutional investors thought they were overvalued and would never subscribe (and that was 80 points ago). They have gone from one money losing business into another (music) which has even worse margins in hopes of diversifying their lines of business. They are just starting to feel the heat from Barnes and Borders and it is only going to get worse. They are biting off more than they can chew in the short-term and the class-action lawsuits are just out there waiting to be filed when this thing tumbles. The only reason for the rise has been pure momentum by retail investors trading in small blocks. Anyone trying to rationalize this rise on some fundamental basis is talking out of their behind. There is no way this company is worth $6 billion on the hope they turn a profit in 2 years (a date that keeps getting pushed back further and further). This is not an Internet stock -- it's a bookseller with a website. If the insiders could unload now they would but they are currently locked out from trading. Unfortunately, the price will probably drop below where it was before the mania started and the sudden reversal may bring down a lot of other stocks that have nothing to do with this.

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