Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 242.41

+5.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (21126)	7/5/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) of 70976

we are close to the bottom-the key is firsr klac numbers were not that bad if you factor not just weak overall demand but the simple fact historical this is weakest part for the semi group. the key is people simple forget is that asia has postponed 30 billion dollers of capacity that will eventually lead to the opposite supply demand situation down the road-probably 1999. unless you think the technology l revolution is over and nobody will spend money on upgrading chips in the future. the point people should not forget is that this group is the one the most capitalized industry in the world with plenty of money and virtually no competition in some related industry where level of ENTRY into their field is near impossible because of the capital intensive nature of the business. one key is this might not be the complete bottom but seasonal factors-christmas -back to school ect- will produce sequentially better numbers in the fall then during the summer. most important is the liquidity in the market is strong and this group is a favorite of money managers in past -especially amat- because the ride down hurts but the ride up is better than sex. thier is no way amat hits 12 .

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