Vitas,
You would have to look further back than just the prior year's highs to spot something as significant as the start of a supercycle. I see your point about Jan. '86 being a significant breakout, but it appears to me to be a continuation of the 5 wave move that began in July of '84 and concluded in March of '86. This 5 wave segment appears to be the 3rd impulse wave in the 5 wave series that began in August of '82 and completed in August of '87. And this '82-'87 series appears to be the first primary wave in the 5 wave series that began in 8/82 and completed in 1/94, thus completing a 12 year cycle wave up.
To finish my wave count from '82, I believe corrective cycle wave 2 completed in Dec. '94, and cycle wave 3 up completed in 8/97. Corrective cycle wave 4 followed, and finished 11/13/97. From there, I have us in cycle wave 5 up, with this cycle wave up scheduled to complete as early as July 1st, '98, and no later than Nov 1st, '98.
So that puts us in a heightened alert mode as far as I'm concerned for the beginning of a significant correction, although these type of corrections are typically preceded by a breathtaking rally, which we've really already had this year. Is there alot more breath out there to be taken though?
Regards,
David |
