How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 486.83

-1.1%

Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8964)	7/6/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (2) of 74651

Nasdaq777-- I, too, am bearish on the long term prospects of Microsoft compared to its current valuation. Possibly as bearish as Toy Soldier. I also have a negative view of the ethics of the high-level management in the company- and I do think that it will bite them on the ass sometime soon. Yet there is no way that I will short the stock, at least until next year. Why? Shorting gives you short term exposure to market moves. The problems that I see as far as NT 5 are at least a year away. I don't predict bankruptcy or layoffs for Microsoft. I just predict that they won't do as well as most others think they will do. In a market like this, only real bad news affects most stocks. And it has to be bad news that people understand. Most people don't understand esoterica like "We're going to add another Beta to NT5" or "The first version will not include intellimirror." The only possible real bad news event that I forsee for the near term is a negative judgement in the DOJ case. And even that is somewhat dependent on the whims of the Reagan/Bush appointed appeals court. I will be studying the politics of the judges involved in this case, though. There were several people who were very bearish on Intel over a year ago. Intel at the time was an even more prestigious stock to own than Microsoft among the "buy a piece of the future" crowd. Intel is now laying off people. Yet it would have been a tactical mistake to short Intel a year ago. The same with Microsoft today. Meanwhile, there's lots of true crap out there to short. So why risk shorting Microsoft? But guess what--- there are other choices beyond buying and selling. One is staying out. One is buying competitors. I have purchased Novell based on my beliefs.

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