Mr. one,
Well said, but I still do not quite understand why the bearishness of MSFT from your statement.
I do not see anything wrong with MSFT's high level management, thinking about the
past history, and on the contrary, they are quite people with vision.
The cpu's business of INTEL is quite different comparing with the software business of MSFT. Actually, INTEL's loss is MSFT's gain. There is quite difference between
MSFT and INTEL's business model, and there is no comparison. INTE's problem is
competition from AMD, NSM which will drag down its profit margin of CPU, as
a result of earning, and there is no sign that this competition will disappear by itself in the near future. While as PCs getting cheaper and cheaper, more people can afford
PCs and which means more revenues for MSFT(almost all are profit, the cost of
manufacturing is very small for MSFT). In the future, PCs is a must in every family,
for education, entertainment, shopping, getting information, communication, ...etc.
More and more families will have more than one PCs (Like my family, we own three
PCs, One for the younger to play games, one for the elder to get informations, to talk people on AOL, and one for myself). And all the PCs in the market will obsolete
itself when more and more advanced softwares came to the market which need more powerful PCs. This is also quite different comparing to the auto industry, you may keep your BMW for more than 10 years, and which always serves the function of move you from place A to Place B. But a 80386 can't run the 3D game software, you have to upgrade, and 80486 maybe too slow to run the Video conference software, and you have to upgrade your pcs. So, the models of Auto industry is again quite different than that of MSFT.
The NT5 is just a small added on portion of MSFT future revenue, and at this moment, no one knows whether it will be released early, on time or delayed. Besides,
NT4 still generate good revenues for MSFT without NT5.
Besides , MSFT has lot of other new products in the pipeline, which are big machines to generate revenues for future MSFT. You probably already heard WEB TV, the global satellite network, which will be in place in the near future.
Talking about the DOJ case, this is just one without merit. I have never heard that
it is against the law for a company to upgrade and improve its own products, and that
a company is responsible for the failure of its competitors, and a company is forced by the government to sell its competitors' products. This is against the natural laws of free market economy. If mSFT is down on this case, all the high tech industry will be down together, and I think the government has the vision. MSFT's success actually benefit the general consumers, it makes the price of its products more affordable to the general consumers ( MSFT can actually raise its Win98 to $150 and won't hurt the sales, and it did not). It create a common standard for every PCs's OS and make
it easy to communicate from PC to PC. Think about that if the price of OS is
$500 per copy or $1000 per copy, we won't have the IT booming of today, which benefit billions of people around the world. So, MSFT's monopoly is a natural one,
just like the water will always flow from mountains to the rivers, it is just the law of natural, and benefit the general public the most. Besides, Win98 counts only very small portion of MSFT's current revenues and much smaller of the future one.
I still do not quite understand why you are so bearish about MSFT.
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