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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Phil(bullrider) who wrote (11006)7/6/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: Mark L.  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
"If KEA is such a wonderful investment, why is the Keane family selling so many shares?"

Please re-read my message. I did not say that Keane was a wonderful investment. I did say it was a wonderful company. There is a big difference. After all, Yahoo! is a wonderful company, too.

I do not have, have not had, and do not expect ever to have a position in Keane. I do, however, follow it closely because I find the information from the company helpful as a comparison to other Y2K companies, where I have a substantial short position. The point I was making in my original post was that many Y2K companies had marginal core businesses when they entered the Y2K field and then saw their valuations explode. Keane, by contrast, had an excellent core business.

On your point about insider selling: I have never found this to be a consistently useful indicator. Have you?

I think there are just too many good reasons for insiders to sell which have no effect on a company's prospects. Reasons like diversification, divorce, estate planning, etc.

On the other hand, I have found big insider buying to be a somewhat useful indicator. The only reason why insiders buy big is greed. This is hardly a failsafe indicator either, but it, along with the early redemption of convertible debentures, always causes me to pause.
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