Vector, great post ...
<<I bought more shares today. Averaging down. The problem is I can't keep
doing this indefinitely. I think my problem is that I don't look at it
like a trader. I have been sucessful across industry as a long term
investor but generally lousy as a trader.>>
I have a hard enough time trying to make informed long term bets ... and I'd match my lousy trades against yours any day ... but I'm trying to crack the code to successful trading, if only to give me insight into buy and sell points on long positions I've chosen based on fundamental research. But, I'm a long ways from being able to do that. Rick H seems quite a ways down the power curve on this.
<<AGPH has a successful drug which is clearly the best in its class. The
Geneva conference raises issues about Viracept growth rate, but sales
are not likely to go down for the next few years at least. Indeed they
are likely to increase.>>
Agreed. Nicely put. Couldn't agree more.
<< The three deals announced will cut into short
term earnings but make great sense long term. They have already built a
sales force and an infrastructure and are leveraging off of it.>>
Agreed, also, though we don't have a whole lot of information on the NNRTI and the next generation PI. However, Remune looks promising, IMO, and appears to make financial and strategic sense to AGPH.
<< We are
at the point where positive news has been greatly discounted . At this
point the chances of a positive surprise is much greater than a negative
one.>>
Agreed. However, I have no idea what's going to happen to the price from here. A broker friend who I consider savvy says breaking the 52 week moving average, there isn't a whole lot of support until the mid to high teens.
This company is an exceptional company. The class of the field. Crack antiviral sales force. Strong clinical and regulatory affairs. World class research. Rhinovirus product entering the clinic sometime soon. Viracept should surprise on the upside for a number of quarters to come, and throw off plenty of cash to support their aggressive drug development plans. Would be a great acquisition by a big pharma at much, much higher levels than it's selling at today.
Can't tell you where the price is going, and I wouldn't recommend you go with my advice if I did : ) but this company is selling cheap.
Who knows what will happen from here? Maybe the sell off will continue, or the stock will be dead money for some time. Or maybe a bounce from here ... obviously I think there's a good chance of that since I've bet $ on that. But any way you look at it, this is an A or A- company selling at dirt cheap prices.
Just MHO, of course. Would welcome folks with different views to chip in on this.
Peter |
