>Why is ZRAN still in the crapper?
Because that is where it belongs. ;-)
Some TA from last week (June 24) for ZRAN:
Let me start by saying that the price is up from just a few weeks ago...way up.
This one fact looked at in and by itself could suggest to buy long...the
trend is your friend...right? Not always. IMO (and I stress opinion here) we are
currently in an overbought condition. Given that ZRAN has not taken out new highs,
and new bullish news has only caused the stock to thrash, my
old friends the chart oscillators can be used to point out possible trend reversals. We
have not had any divergences that would suggest to buy on the long side. ZRAN has
had several short-term reversals on the up side in the past since it's decline from the 18s
back in March, and each time ZRAN has made lower lows after it peaked in a matter
of 1 to 2 weeks. I see no reason why this latest news-induced pop would be different.
Judging from today's action it would appear I got my reversal on the downside at about
the right point, and barring any fundamental changes (news) the trend should continue.
However many a short has been burned using these basic techniques (I could be next!)
and must keep on their toes and use stops. Anyway all I need in order to hold my short
is several key bearish chart indicators and patterns to maintain my hold. I found many:
First off, one of the less popular indicators of the masses (but most important of the
technicians who trade stock) is Volume. The 21-Day-Volume-EMA was trading at
about 110K or so BEFORE ZRAN's last run. On the first day of it's public news
release (Monday), Volume shot up to just under 1MM shares traded. On Tuesday
interest declined after the initial wave of morning buyers got in and shorts exited and
volume closed at right about 800K shares. Momentum had been lost. The shorts
pounced all over it at this time. Today volume declined by almost 70% and price slipped
some as well. Very few upticks presented traders for new short positions today. The
MMs made sure of that (they want the shares? could be.). Price follows volume, and
expect 12 to be taken out shortly. Bearish.
ZRAN came real close to the Bollinger Bands upper envelope resistance (13 1/2) on
Tuesday, only to fall quickly back to neutral ground within the envelope. All momentum
faded here. Today ZRAN closed lower still. BB support is pegged at 11 7/16. There is
only about 1MM shares of overhead that will keep ZRAN above 11 7/16, so support
is not very strong in the event of a continued decline. Bearish.
The MACD Histogram is at it's highest point in over a year, and still climbing as of
today. MACD suggest continued momentum is still holding ZRAN up, and is sufficient
enough to continue the up trend. Very Bullish.
ZRAN is still trading above it's 21day and 50day moving averages....alot of chartists
play by these indicators, and may have already sold....but will jump back in the moment
one of these is touched. No read....just thought I'd mention it.
RSI went down today...had been as high as 57. Kinda bearish (no 30/70 crossover.)
The Bostian's Accumulation/Distribution Oscillator had a price divergence on
Monday....this is very bullish (it indicates a possible trend reversal)...but the reversal
was never verified due to today's poor trading activity. Monday-Bullish. Today-Bearish.
There are some other charts that I did not mention.....just covered the ones that stuck
out. |
