Share Price & Sales Projections
I'd like to congratulate all the long term Immucor supporters and welcome new as well as interested investors. The following sales and stock price estimates have been cycled from past posts so that we may review projections now that ABS 2000 has been approved by the FDA. May we all prosper and learn from these prophecies...........
Subject: Re: Potential earnings
Date: Fri, Aug 22, 1997 03:03 EDT
From: DD531
Message-id: <19970822070300.DAA10642@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Hello Mason:
According to Gallup, placing 75 ABS units the first year is realistic. That generates about .37 earnings (see my previous post for math). Add to that the increase in reagent trial, increase in Gross Margin, Imagn sales, and current earnings. Net result earnings somewhere below a buck (.70 - .80, my wild guess). 80 x 35(average PE) = $28/share
Now, if I were BLUD management I would be looking for HELP in placing and supporting ABS units like their "going out of style" ... which they will if they don't hurry. BLUD must merge or offer licensing agreements to other companies to help distribute the ABS. ..very common practice. It is too big for BLUD. I assume the demand will be great.
Dominic
Subject: Re: Potential earnings
Date: Fri, Aug 22, 1997 08:21 EDT
From: MasonBarge
Message-id: <19970822122100.IAA10724@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Dom: I think the 75/year figure for the 2000 is a little optimistic, but I hope not. Anyway, my personal target is about $20/share. However, I do have some faith that the future earnings will continue to grow, the company has been good about growth, so I'm not bailing out even if the ABS is approved and the stock hits $20 or so.
Subject: Re: 75 units?
Date: Sun, Aug 24, 1997 17:49 EDT
From: DD531
Message-id: <19970824214901.RAA27056@ladder02.news.aol.com>
<< What information do you have that indicates 75 units will be sold in the first year? Seems that sales have been almost nil in foreign markets. Does the abs have a "plain" upgrade characteristic?>>
According to the conference call with Gallup CEO, and Stills CFO, in which I participated, (see previous posts) about 1 unit per week will be placed in the first 6 months after FDA approval. Then 2 or 3 units per week will be placed in the second 6 months. That comes to about 75 units in the first year.
A pre-market "coupon program" toward purchase of an ABS unit generated over 400 participants. Also, one of the reasons PREMIER (buys for 250 hospitals) went with BLUD as reagent supplier is the eventual approval of the ABS (automation...must use BLUD reagents). Other than that I do not know of any marketing studies the company has done for analyzing the potential market for the ABS in the USA. I am almost sure such data exists. People in the field see a large market for the ABS. Remember: the USA market is different than the socialized medicine market in foreign countries. There is much less incentive to cut costs in those markets than in the USA. The ABS chief purpose is to CUT LABOR COSTS.
I know nothing about "upgrade" characteristics of the ABS
Dominic
Regards,
Tom |
