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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 99.85

+6.2%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alex who wrote (14194)	7/7/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (3) of 116764

"There is not a good risk/return scenario in gold stocks," the analyst said. Investors are unsure what role gold will play in the new European central bank, and the outlook for the metal's price in general is unclear." Substitute "gold stocks" and "metal" for chips and you got a general public line for Intel and others in 1994 (who needs faster chip anyway) INTC up 400% I am for one reasonably sure that if ECB gold holding are deemed unfavorable to POG we would see supply side shrink instantly, as not only investors but producers are also waiting whether to close a shop or not...Thus the curve may be $260 to the $600 rather than $290 to say $500 in 2 years. ECB does not really controll POG other than short-term sentiment (not much different than chips, but with far more profound consequences...Yet I can't see Gold Controlling CB like Germany and France propping-up Dollar...I am reiterating 20-25% gold reserves, POG $350-380 by Christmas...and yes I think that albeit "insurance policy" considerations are all right, the odds that dollar would collapse or even return to the 1994 level are far greater than a house catching fire (even if one lives in Florida)

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