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Andrew-- For the last 2 months I have been watching the semiequips closely with a view to putting 1/3rd of my portfolio into this area. Currently, I am 90% in cash and 10% in ASYT which I bought recently at 12.63. So, I'm looking for say 2 more seq's. In view of the potential protracted downturn, but also the inevitability of the rebound, my plan is to look only at stocks that are 1)down at least 60% from their high already (which eliminates AMATand NVLS) and 2) have Cash-- NET of all LTD-- which is at least 15% of the stock price (which eliminates LRCX, IPEC and Cymer and a few others. ------ At the moment, I am honing in on EGLS, KLIC and KLAC as ones to focus ont (ie KLIC under 14 and KLAC under 24, EGLS around 11). What do you think of these three from a technology and competitive position standpoint?---- btw---Cymer concerns me because of its debt, SFAM concerns me because of AMAT and the rate at which SFAM's cash is now depleting, MTSN's cash may run out, BRKS and PRIA are out since I already have ASYT, SVGI needs to go down more,etc I have read your previous notes and your portfolio choices and would welcome your comments |
