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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (278)7/7/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: doormouse  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
No, not all banks are beyond salvation... chicken little-ism is a disease among Russians and (admittedly) those who follow things Russian sometimes pick it up (Sinologists have it easier, they acquire a habit -- eating Chinese food),

But a significant devaluation of the ruble forces most banks to repay foreign loans with a currency that makes better wall paper than 'paper'. Few would survive.

Devaluation of the ruble SIGNIFICANTLY needs to be avoided. Value investors (followers of Columbia U.'s Graham) can start hunting carefully. The Soviet economy in 1986 suffered badly from a
significant downturn in oil prices. Gorbachev compounded the financial woes by his anti-vodka campaign. Yeltsin is more sober-minded [sic]. He can reinstate monopolies over vodka in some form --- and reap a whirlwind of rubles.

jes
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