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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)
ECX 1.686-2.0%3:59 PM EST

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2639)7/7/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: Kevin Hamlin  Read Replies (4) of 2841
 
<<, but I smell a class action lawsuit in the air,>>

Ron, it's a pipe dream. It just won't happen. As I'm sure you're aware, the markets are far from "clean". News (and the market's reaction) is almost always out there before the official news is released. It shows up usually first in volume, and then in price. Yesterday was an example (a very familiar one), of how unfair the markets are despite regulatory authorities. It happens ALL the time.

Maybe I've been doing this too long, but I've come to expect that the market will "know" LONG before I will. In that regard, I will usually "follow the money", yesterday being a good example. As I mentioned before, the market almost always overreacts, and I'm pretty sure there's a strong case for this here. We'll have to wait and see over the next day or two.

The way I look at it is that if there was a time to be disappointed in the company, it was over the past year's management. On this point, I agree with you fully. This however, is a statement made in the PAST tense. In the PRESENT, and FUTURE, it is quite clear that management has decided to bite the bullet and face the problems. To me, that is an indication to HAVE faith that things will turn around, NOT the opposite. It's the first MAJOR indication of this company turning the corner in a positive way. (I know these words are of little comfort to those who just endured a big share price erosion.) It's unfortunate that "turning the corner" is almost always hand in hand with finding the bottom. It's true with a lot of companies (and certainly true of people.)

To all who are making their own personal decisions, stand back and ask yourself whether this company is in better shape today (the truth having been spoken and the plans to recover being put in progress, management willing to step up to the plate) than it was a few days/weeks/months ago (problems ignored, management doing nothing to correct the situation). Personally I would say today that the company is in much better shape, at least philosophically (which will lead to the changes being made and the company returning to profitability the way it should and can be.)

No, this healthier company is not yet reflected in the share price. The market is punishing the share price for what has taken place over the past year, and in typical market fashion, it has been an overstated knee-jerk reaction. Pendulums always come back to equilibrium, and right now this pendulum is way over to one side.

The way I would look at it is to say "hmmmmm, better company now, share price is way overstated to the downside, bad news is out and over....well that's a buy.

As always, we'll all have to wait and see. Again all the best to you and others with all your investments.

Regards,

Kevin



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