Tokyo Mex I agree with you:same MMs who did the IPO will short their own stock..
What will happen with Vivus tomorrow, next few weeks?
My opinion, and...dare to think the unthinkable:
-the big break is the turning of Humana and Prudential against
Viagra, " for safety reasons ". In fact we all know that the biggest
reason was cost: we don't have the money to screen 20,000,000 ED
patients for coronary artery disease: at ~ $1000/screen/patient that
equals to 20 bill, or 5 times the end stage renal disease/dialysis
program in America.
-soon every little Dick and Harry HMO will say the same emboldened by
Humana's action.
-fear starts to spread among Urologists-don't make me-treat- a-heart-
attack--pleeease.Same with faint hearted GPs.That leaves only
Cardiologists in the arena and they are knee deep in crocodiles
already to worry about treating ED, " leave me out of this please ".
-panic starts to hit Merrill-Lynch-Morgan-Stanley-strong-buy-Pfizer-
now folks . Just like the oil cartel nations they all hit the sell
button at the same time thinking that nobody is watching them.
-PFE goes to 100, 90, 80, one painful drop at a time.
-PFE back to $60???? were it started. ( By the way at $60 I think PFE
is a good buy and I'll buy some ).
So now who's going to take care of ED? Well it's either Big Sharp-The-Needle or MUSE. And guess what, by now most Urologists, and possibly GPs, will have learned how to educate patients to give themselves MUSE properly.So it burns a little; but that soon goes away with sex and " you'll feel fine ". " Besides, this is safe". " I just tested you in here, no hypotension ".
Well that brings us back to some good 'ol eps, PE, Growth rates, etc., etc., numbers for Vivus, we all know.
By this time Paine Weber, Boston Suisse have covered their shorts.And they will do exactly what you sais they will do: which is , squeeze their fellow short.By the time the little guy figures out he is getting squeezed by his ex-bed mates on he'll be down 50% IMHO and the Big Squeeze will start and finish with Vivus between 30 and 40.
" And the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time ". (T.S. Eliot)
TA,
still long on Vivus after all these years, I mean months, << GGG >>, ( just getting carried a little away there ).
|
