Global alert-- Russia amongst all of the emerging markets is still showing sign of breaking old 52 week lows--- it is right now at 279 the 52 week trading range is 843 to 283, I would like that it closes above 283 although intra day it was as low as 270 it opened 275 and drifted lowered but came back up slightly.
China-- I see SSCE hitting 1340 as a new resistance today the stock market is performing within the bands and right now trading at 1338. I think HSI helping and China are so much interdependent and complimentary.
HSI-- The support of 8550 is maintained and now in y opinion it is heading for 9776. It is trading up strongly.
Nikkei-- !6530 and a good bounce off a critical support is a good sign- 16416 remains a very important support.
DJIA SPX Composite and other indexes-
DJIA-- I think old highs of 9212 is on the cards as earning season progresses. SPX 1158 is a good resistance and as I predicted yesterday it proved to be a formidable one as IIX stocks drifted down, although it should have been helped by SOX driven rally but such was the pull back of excite and yahoos that TXN and INTC or ALTR big moves was not able to help SPX take OUT 1158.I will be very pleased for the sake of the health of the market if IIX hits it 50 days MA at 339 , a manic speculative driven rally does not respect any of these so called MA logic but we have seen all this many time before and will not allow any of our post hyping issues which will one day cool down like Iomega.
I will like 255 on SOX to be taken out where I will like to suggest some 270 calls for Aug. On PSE I think we should raise our levels on protective side and watch out for a break of 348 area if that is taken out we will see some solid reason earnings shall be more disappointing than the lowered expectations, in my opinion convoluted it may sound but the next rally is based on beating lowered expectations, MOT did that last night will we see it as a established tendency if that is the case we may see SOX moving higher to 280 area post INTC earnings, markets trade on future prognosis and not the past-- well may be the justification could be past is behind us lets see what is in store of these semis for future. On this count we may see a rally in the semis. However on one hand I need to establish the reasons of a rally on the other I will also like to keep eye on the fundamentals. I have since last 15 months tried my best to keep an eye on subtle changes it was one of these minor changes that INTC and TXN MF led me to break this impending rally. When Raj called me early morning I told him what is in the store, now I need to see if this was institutional money or will leave and take profit. I will err on the side of money that was smart and finding positions pre numbers. I think TXN has the ability to surprise.
My SPX target is short of few points only on SPU my target is 1170-80 level and I think once 1910 on composite and 1918 on composite is taken out we go higher, if 1892 is broken I will buy some 1140 puts which I see as a first interim support on SPX-- my other supports are 1130 and a good one at 1118 on SPX.
On composite I will carefully watch for a break of 1'900 and like to get confirmatory signals of IIX below 380, I will keep also a keen eye on PSE 348 and SOX 242, any of these breaks would suggest that earnings forward looking statements present a bleaker picture than what is already factored in. true to our motto that we are neither long or short we go and grab some lot of puts but ofcourse levels will be given on regular basis. The philosophical understanding of the dynamics and forces that move the markets are much more important. Idea will as usual be the trend setter where ever markets head up or down. INTC alert those who believe in Kurlack like I treat him with disdain-ggg ( by the way I respect him the most, therefore I highlight his warnings more then anyone else's). I need to- I don't like his read of the market it kill me all the time- can buy Kurlack bear spread Aug INTC 65 puts can be had from less than a $, I am loading up just throwing some money away so that if he is right I may benefit from his understanding of finer issues, although to be honest these are throw away trades in my mind.
I will watch interestingly how MOT is rewarded or punished, my whole logic of beating lowered expectations is based on how markets delivers its judgement on MOT today. It has beaten lowered market expectations. Are the forward looking statements enough for investors or they would like this to get it at 48. In case MOT drifts big I will re-write my script and try to trade the markets on short side. This is extremely important go with the drift of the market, many a gurus have lost their name and honor in pursuit of the big Kahuna, just be realistic the money you loose is anyway is your own and since it is difficult to make vain glory is not something I would like to waste on.
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