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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)
ECX 1.720-3.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (2655)7/8/1998 8:31:00 AM
From: MARK BARGER  Read Replies (4) of 2841
 
The continuing demise of ECGOF's stock price.....

I have met and spoken with many fine people in the last 1 1/2 years analyzing this company and trying to determine the cause of it's apparently undervalued state. Never in my dreams would I have thought that ECGOF would be trading in the $3 range.

I first bought ECGOF in the $7-8 range last summer, and averaged up when it took off last fall. When it started declining last fall I sold off gradually as I got these rude calls from Mr. Margin( in hindsight lucky for me). I ditched the rest of my position after ECGOF absolutely blew the 4th quarter.

Last year the 3rd quarter results gave me an alarm ( the first quarter with Chempower) when we didn't see the big jump in revenues that we were all looking for. It was explained away with believable talk about contract timing, etc. It was then that I repeatedly asked the company for break-outs on the revenue growth of the different subs. I was told that they didn't provide that type of info. I now believe that management itself didn't have a clear handle of what was going on with the different subs. I was assured that internal growth of 25% was a good estimate of the companies performance. In hindsight the refusal to provide broken out information on the different subs. was my first clue about the deteriorating growth plans of ECGOF.

The 4th quarter conf. call was a total embarassment. That was the last straw in my series of disappointments with ECGOF. Mike and Dave were clearly in over their heads. They gave no excuse for blowing the $1.20 est. except something about misjudging the tax rate or the USA/Canadian accounting thing. It was like just the day of the conf. call they figured out they were going to have to pay taxes on the 4th quarter revenues. Norris didn't even have the financials with him in the conf. call. and both stumbled badly thru out the entire call.

Clearly McGinnis didn't do his homework when hiring Norris as the CFO.
That hiring has spelled disaster. My wife ( very competent CPA) told me how unprofessional the quarterlies were layed out each quarter when I showed them to her. The financial information was scary enough <gg> but the lay out was misleading and very suspicious in her eyes. I blew it off to her conservative nature.

The courting of DBCO was Mike's attempt at putting ECGOF on the map as a major player in the industrial services industry. I don't fault him entirely for that fiasco. He was truly dealing with crooks up at DBCO. However, his connections at Deere Park have come back to haunt him IMO. In hindsight, ECGOF's connections to that scuzzy bunch ring alarm bells also.

Mike McGinnis was given his chance to shape DCGOF into his vision and fell flat on his face. I'm sure he is a honorable man, but he has failed miserably, not only in his failure to grow the company but in his lack of management skills in smoothly running the subs. he started out with.

Lastly, ECGOF's continual financial support of EIFH is inexcusable. That should have been another clear sign that the McGinnis/Norris team was insompetent. For ECGOF, as cash starved and increasedly share diluted as they were, they had no business providing EIFH with the nearly $20 mil. in stock/cash that they did. EIFH's net worth at the time was, what $10 mil. max?

I learned a lot following ECGOF, and managed to basically break even over the 12 month holding period I had (while the rest of the market was up a cool 30%)

Yes, the price is down and now may be a smart time to buy ECGOF, but until I see clear signs of management changes I wouldn't touch this dog. And I'm sure the big money feels the same way. Just too many mistakes made in the last year. The oil market collapse has not helped ECGOF's cause lately that's for sure. Just too many good solid companies out there that deserve my investment dollars to invest them here.

Good luck to all longs. I apologize for my ramblings but I feel much better now <gg>.

Mark
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