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Technology Stocks : Altera
ALTR 53.61+1.3%Jul 7 5:00 PM EST
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To: Ed Robichaud who wrote (1827)7/8/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo  Read Replies (1) of 2389
 
Ed, I'm a cynic when it comes to analysts, but even more so when it comes to Chaplinky. From some of his statements I've seen, IMHO he's the Dan Quayle of chip analysts.

I don't disagree with Ragsdale in terms of a 1-year horizon or his stocks, but from an FA perspective IMHO we aren't at the proverbial bottom. Whether the price turns ahead of FA or how the prices discount expectations of an FA bottom - who knows?

But when these guys talk about meeting expectations what they leave out is the fact that in one sense, all these companies have already "failed to meet expectations" in the sense that estimates have been coming down for various reasons, at times one of those reasons can be "company guidance". So the way the game works, these guys as a group steadily lower their numbers then someone cries "Eureka! They'll meet estimates!".

And what they leave out in that cry is "Yeah, but what about forward guidance." For example, MOT looked great until the forward guidance for 3Q came in below the .15 everyone was looking for. Now I think they're looking for a breakeven quarter.

ALTR and XLNX are good long-term companies. And the chip cycle will turn up.

I just can't stand "the rules of the game" when it comes to analysts <g>

Good trading,

Tom

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