*AV*--Of the 3 possible candidates, my nod would go to KLAC since both KLIC and EGLS may experience more Asian exposure and back end processing equipment slowdowns. The Test and Assembly areas need some upgrading but the available capacity is huge these days. With the slowdown in the wafer outs by the IC manufacturers, there has been a more pronounced slowdown in the units(die) tested and ssembled. This is just my opinion.
As far as the rest of the list goes, I understand the strategy that you are trying to use, which does make some sense. It is definitely one way to narrow down choices to ensure the highest probability of success. However, you must recognize that certain stocks have a life of their own, whether it is because of perceived greatness, part of an index, branded stock, favorite of the financial or institutional community, or any of a number of reasons that could create a herd mentality towards or away from the stock. Such is the case for AMAT and NVLS, which will run WHEN the street decides it is time and not necessarily when the financials turn around.
IPEC and SFAM may have soemthing to worry about relative to AMAT but the entire CMP sector and the technology itself just hasn't taken off as was expected. The CMP full implementation has been delayed just like the 300mm wafer diameter program. I do not think the CMP pushout will be as long as the 300mm pushout. However, CMP will be necessary down the road so the delay will just hurt the bottom lines of these companies.
ASYT is getting to be too strong and the more they move forward, the more I do not want to take a chance on either BRKS or PRIA. I would not be surprised to see ASYT and PRIA cut some sort of deal down the road (merger or alliance).
CYMI is the sleeping giant. When the time comes (AND IT WILL) for the across the board implementation of DUV for the upcoming device feature size technologies, they will soar just like YHOO, with one exception. CYMI will be worth the price the stock is at.<GGG>
Andrew |
