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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: taxikid who wrote (11172)7/8/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Congradulations all on Amazon shorts.

I tried to put an order in overnight through E*Trade but there were still no shares to short. I had been contemplating buying puts early in the week but unfortunately decided prudence was to wait until after the Yahoo report. My logic was that the Internuts would hold up until Yahoo reported, bounce tomorrow morning based on a split and better than expected earnings, and then fall on profit taking and poor results from the remaining internuts.

I believe the next 3 months could be good for internet shorts.

Microsoft are supposedly releasing their internet search engine this quarter. Any sniff of a direct competition with Mr Softy is enough to make institutions go running.

Also amazon, which I would classify as truly overvalued, rather than just a risky bet, may decouple from the rest of the internet stocks. I see Amazon as something of an Iomega, not just because of high growth but because it is a stock propelled mostly by the Motley Fools, hyped bulliten boards and momentum. Yesterday I did a search for Amazon on the Motley Fool and got the impression that they have just yesterday started to distance themselves from Amazon. If they do, a lot of the momentum traders will dump Amazon, just like they did to Iomega.

Graeme

PS. Hoping for a good pop tommorow on Amazon in which case I will buy short term Puts. Otherwise I will wait for a true downward trend before commiting myself.
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