Robert, Thread,
I agree with your prognostication but for completely different reasons.
All the bears, please enlighten as to when, when will doomsday hit.
Back to Asia, there has been very little news out of the region recently. I expect much news to come out over the next few weeks regarding actual Q2 results for the internationals. It will be interesting to see. MikeM, Zeev, where are you, we need to expand the discussions.
US domestic auto sales had a banner June, with Ford, Chrysler, and GM having double digits Y-Ago increases, this despite the strike. We are talking 10-20+% increase in sales, amazing!
I have been looking to the auto industry to show import impacts from Asia, and I think the auto figures may show US consumer impact of imports will not hit till Q3, Q4 (or they just do not build many left hand drives overseas anymore). Certainly, though, high-tech is already feeling the impact. News out of San Jose is many job cuts in semis and related. Here in Boston Digital and Data General have been "restructuring" and will soon be adding much needed supply to the labor pool, but this is less Asia related.
Footware and textiles are another place to look. Nike is troubled. At this point I am seeing very little price relief in clothing, except that the women in my life prefer the off-price name brand retail outlets versus the Needless Markups and Filene$.
I must say, I am not as familiar with the industrial make-up of Asia as I was once. Any more canaries we can look to for guidance?
My best,
Lee |
