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Technology Stocks : Novell is Dead. Apple is Dead. Long Live Microsoft!

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To: nommedeguerre who wrote (212)12/4/1996 6:10:00 PM
From: William G. Ward   of 238
 
Norm,

I agree with much of what you say about Microsoft but I have to ask what is the bottom line here? The truth is nobody but techno geeks like you and me care who invented something or stole/borrowed/acquired it from somewhere else. And we make up a small segment of the market.

I believe that the real question in the here and now is "Can Apple generate excitement again?"

You can argue that QuickTime and some of the other smaller technologies make Apple a player but I think that only a 1984 like leap ahead (read BE O/S here) will get them back on the covers of magazines like Business Week with trailers saying "Apple is back."

It appears that the future of computing is browsing (MS Outlook this month, Windows 97 soon). If users "browse" their local hard drives, the company WEB, the outside WEB, the company database and everything else, only power users/developers will need a REAL OPERATING SYSTEM. If this is true, and I think it is, Apple/BE OS may have a terrific chance at holding its own against a clunky Windows NT in the graphics market and the home market.

I've seen the BE OS in action and its very impressive. If Apple can build on this system, that Be claims will be very easy to program, they only need a few big guys to sign on (Adobe, Macromedia) and have other aggressive players being pushed out of the Windows market come on board to push BE acceptance at the pace needed to hold off the NT tidal wave. But even if the tidal wave keeps coming there should be a market for a "Superior" operating system. Many high end developers still use NextStep (Quake) for example.

I don't know if this will be enough to move Apple a lot higher in the markets but I don't think they will die either. The question is, can Apple execute a strategy to generate excitement again?

Good Luck,

Will
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