Hi ECAC,
< The only time S3 can make decent money is during occasional periods of fab undercapacity and high demand, a short-lived condition that the marketplace will quickly correct.>
IMO there is another event coming that will test the limits of the markets current capacity: Y2K. Over the next year and a half the more foresighted businesses will be updating their computer and network systems. Then all of a sudden, after ringing in the new year, all those folks using older machines as word processors find out on Jan 2, 2000 that their machines no longer date things the way they used to.
By that time, a sub 1K computer will have at least a 3.2 hard drive, a 400 processor, 64 ram, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modem speeds double again. Most cars will have on board computers. Online shopping will be starting to put a dent in the traffic at the mall. Great aunt Martha will be talking to her niece in LA via her computers video phone. Every kid in the world will be begging mom and dad to buy them the latest 3D game, and the hottest, fastest new chip to run it on.
Over capacity is as much a temporary condition as under capacity. If you fish close to the bottom, expect a few snags.
Regards,
Don |
