Patrick,
Your physchological explanation seems good to me at first blush. I don't understand this market screaming to new highs. I never did dump my OEX puts. I figured out what I would get, less commissions and determined it was best to let it ride. In any event, you can imagine at the time I considered this there wasn't much left. Now there is even less. I know I need one hell of a pullback to get some dollars back. For me, I have already mentally written them off as a complete loss.
The key to me in thinking that this market is about to turn over, is that my gutt is telling me to get long! If I had a bunch more capital and a little less hesitation at this point with real dollars, I would buy calls for the run to 580. This tells me we are very close to the top! How is that for backwards thinking?
Anyway, I think the Fed adding liquidity has a great deal to do with this. I would love to be able to study this concept more, but believe that Gersh (hope I did not mistate your opinion) is correct and when the Fed adds liquidity the market rocks. Apparently they are about done with their liquidity additions.
The chances of a huge dump, in my opinion, is about zero. However, (don't you love how I couch everything to cover both sides!) because it seems to me everyone of average persuasion is flat out bullish maybe the dump will come. I don't hear of a July correction from any camp. I hear an Aug maybe, buy definitely by the end of the year. Why not July? Especially if everyone is thinking the fall. I don't know.
Well, I still think my puts are toast. I think we may see a downside to 550 OEX, but not much more. Wish I was playing the mini with real money...that would be a very nice downside move.
I am thinking I am about ready to pull a Jerry as well. Sick and tired of being on the wrong side when real bucks are at stake. Hopefully not trading with real money for a while will get my mind-set where it ought to be. For now, I am just flat out frustrated, fed-up and tired.
-Scott |
