Mike, Wallace: re investing climate. Well I don't understand it either. Man, I can't recall when so many of my stock picks and long term holds have been trading at such lows. And in such an apparently great investment climate. OLS, SFLX, EX, PGTZ, WDC, APM, CYM, ICOC, TCMS, OEA, TIMT, UNMG, CAG, NTAIF, ELAMF, CCRO, HDCO, RACCQ, ESST, LODG, UC ------ whew! wow! Losers all. I still own 'em. And I can dig up a few more if I look. I'd be upset if I had to judge myself by these downtrodden clunkers --g--.
Taking profits recently in Durakon (was twice mentioned in Barron's as undervalued), CSTM (accepted buyout offer), LQU (was a bought as a short term speculative buy), FLEXF (slight position trimming), ABT (position trimming --- and I bought after reading Peter Lynch write in early '95 in Worth to avoid because it was overvalued. HA! Half the fun is seeing him wrong -g-). Starting this week a new small position in HOT (Starwood Hotels & Resorts - an aggressive gorilla in the hotel business.)
It would seem to me that people who want to invest in the stock market to make reasonable profits or very good profits, would want to develop some methodology around which to operate. Given that most --all-- successful investors seem to be people who invest over a long period of time -- many years or decades, there should be some framework or guiding principles developed and repeated (with occasional tweaking) over this long timeframe. To me, internet "investing" - either by the general public or by insiders who have secured millions of shares of stock-- that is not a long term strategy because there is not a repeatable methodology with it. (Well, maybe a few entrepreneurs can repeat their success, and maybe a few investors can play fads over and over again-- that's rare and not practical for the rest of us.) Of course for those people who have "taken a shot" and made a couple of million or the several insiders with $billion in profits - they could care less if it's repeatable or a viable method because they've secured brass ring. That's good for them, but I say this is not the way for most investors to optimize their risks/rewards and secure a profitable future. Of course in looking back... I'd rather be with them for a couple of thousand shares of AOL (at last year's low price), than any of the more than 20 problem stocks I've got now -g-. However, the game for us value investors is not yet over - or so I keep telling myself. And sometimes I actually believe it.
FWIW. Paul. |
