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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (47455)	7/8/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (1) of 58727

Patrick, "I know I sound a lot like I'm counting a lot on psychology here but market psychology is important once the ball gets rolling in one direction or another. The entire rationale for it continuing up at this stage has to be momentum based and that is psychology." I think we will be very lucky to see a pull back of even 3% when this market does eventually put in some sort of a top. Japan is attempting to fix itself, albeit with rather helter skelter press announcements about tax cuts. Europe is going very strong, with exception to the currency problems that Russia is having. Earnings warnings are well out of the way and the yen/dollar appears to be stabilizing. Rates backing off to 5.7 on the long bond may give us some resistance, but I fear that the semis will be the next leg of this rally. Breadth has really improved since last month and I think that the mutual funds must be sitting on piles of cash. After raising cash in early June, and re-deploying parts of it to dress up for quarters end, together with continued inflows should leave them a lot left over considering the volume that we have seen. Heavier volume would lead me to believe that most of the money had been put back to work, but the volume it is just not there. Is wish I had the data to do a money flow study on the S&P to see if my theory could be supported. This market has been extremely difficult for me to grasps lately. The one thing that I noticed this afternoon, was that there was not 200 point run up on the Spoos at the close. The past couple of days have seen massive run ups in the Spoos right on the close. Perhaps that might be a very early indication that the rally is running a little tired. I just suspect that it will not take long for it to catch its breath. Wayde

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