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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dr. Bob who wrote (21243)	7/9/1998 12:50:00 AM
From: Robert O	Read Replies (1) of 70976

You said: "IMO, there isn't a chance for this sector to take off for another 6 months (or longer), so there is no risk to waiting. The contrarian view is that the time to buy is when everything looks bleak, but sometimes, things really ARE bleak!" I concur, "Sometimes a cigar really is just a cigar" --Dr. Freud If not for insane recent summer tech rally I think we would have already seen AMAT down sig. further than 30. The confluence of neg. items grows too great. Any slip in NASDAQ and flood gates will open. As of this post Hong Kong NIK down 1% mid-day. Lately, there has been a VERY high correlation b/t NIK and NASDAQ. Tomorrow may be harsh day given all bad news (cf "all things do inform against me"). I liken neg. item buildup to Jim Fixx the runner (remember him?). This guy was a marathon runner, doing books, commercials, etc. Picture of health. Then one day BAM drops dead of a heart attack, I believe while actually running. Perhaps he felt certain signs leading up to that day but simply ignored them on assumption he was so FIT how could these signs really apply to him? AMAT has been treated like that super athlete lately..the market ignoring all that ails the industry as if only their patient were immune. Yes, it has corrected from high 30s to 29 but that was based on early estimates and Morgan's own dictum that next qtr. was weak. It practically took a revolution to finally drive the price down after last announcement. Upon what meat doth this our Caesar feed, that he is grown so great? p.s. I feel like my "trial member" status above is my Scarlet Letter screaming in sin red "newbie." Quite a bit of branded shame to save a few bucks!

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