Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (21241)	7/9/1998 4:20:00 AM
From: Rick	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Paul V. - You can put your bags in the luggage storage and relax. The inbound train your waiting for is MIA. You can either wait for the train or choose a new destination - that would be my approach. It's a fools game to try to pick the bottom. If you really think it has upside to 100, it would seem that it would make a whole lot more sense to wait for some indication of improving conditions - surely it's not going to gap up to 100 and cause you to miss the ride. I think you're talking yourself into holding onto a poor performer. Cut your losses and move to something with growth potential over the next year. These cyclicals always fall alot more than you think, just as they rise too high during good times. How many people thought the disk drive makers were a good buy as they declined up to 80% ? Sure, AMAT is going to be back, but it's just a pipe dream to think it's going to be a good performer in the next year. If your horizon is beyond a year then maybe it can be justified - the problem, of course, is that the market demands near term performance, so this is dead money at best and another 50% decline is not out of the question. Rick.

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